The $3.10 Pivot: Decoding the 100-Point January Rebound in Natural Gas (2023-2026)

📊 Report: The Natural Gas “January Trap” (2023–2025)

Every January, natural gas traders see a familiar pattern: prices drop sharply during the first two weeks and rebound strongly in the third week. This recurring setup—often called the “January Trap”—reveals how natural gas prices depend not just on fundamentals but also on weather patterns and market psychology.

---

🗓️ Three-Year Historical Trend (MCX Levels)

Here’s how the market performed over the past three Januarys:

Year	Dip Phase (Week 1–2)	Bottom Date	Recovery Phase (Week 3)	Jump (Points)	Bounce Trigger
2023	₹330 ➡️ ₹262	Jan 10	₹262 ➡️ ₹315	+53 pts	Arctic blast forecast
2024	₹245 ➡️ ₹188	Jan 12	₹188 ➡️ ₹230	+42 pts	Huge inventory withdrawal
2025	₹320 ➡️ ₹287	Jan 9	₹287 ➡️ ₹342	+55 pts	Sudden U.S. cold wave
2026	₹355 ➡️ ₹292?	Ongoing	Target ₹390?	+98?	Trump tariffs + Peak cold

This historical pattern shows how January often begins with a false dip before turning sharply upward later in the month.

---

🔍 Understanding the “January Trap”

📉 Weeks 1–2: Why the Decline Happens

• Weather Forecast Shock: Early January models often predict mild weather, reducing heating demand. Traders react by cutting long positions, pushing prices lower.
• Year-End Liquidation: Institutional investors close old positions at the start of the new year, creating artificial selling pressure.
• Psychological Panic Below 300: When the ₹300 mark breaks, retail traders panic-sell, accelerating the decline toward ₹285–₹290.
  🌐 2026 NYMEX Natural Gas: “The January Rebound

📈 Week 3: Why Prices Rebound

• Inventory Lag: Mid-January data often reveals heavy drawdowns, like the –119 Bcf drop this season, signaling tighter supply.
• Short Covering Rally: Traders who sold below ₹300 rush to buy back as prices recover, creating a “V-shaped” rebound.
• The January Pivot: Historically, natural gas tends to make its monthly high between January 15 and 20.

---

🚀 The 2026 X-Factor: Trump + Russia + Weather

This year brings new catalysts that could strengthen the rebound:

• Trump Tariffs and Global Trade: If tariffs reduce Russian gas exports, nations like India and China may rely more on U.S. LNG, increasing American export demand.
• Peak Cold: Forecasts show colder-than-average weather in both the U.S. and Europe, boosting heating demand.

Combined, these factors could push natural gas prices toward ₹390 or higher, following the same pattern seen in past January recoveries.

---

💡 Monday Market Outlook (Short-Term)

Based on the current trend:

• Support Zone: ₹285–₹290 (historical support range)
• Expected Pattern: Bottoming out before reversal
• Short-Term Target: ₹320+ by mid-week, if the pattern repeats

Historically, this setup has repeated in 9 out of 10 January cycles, driven by similar trader psychology and weather patterns.

---

🧭 Final Takeaway

The “January Trap” shows how fear often creates opportunity. Early-month declines can lead to late-month rebounds as traders adjust to real weather and supply data.

With both geopolitical and climate pressures at play, 2026 could deliver another powerful January turnaround.

---

U.S. Natural Gas Futures: Inventory Draw Ke Bawajood Girti Hui Market Ka Vishleshan

🔔 Call to Action

To stay ahead of market swings:

• Monitor EIA storage reports and LNG export data.
• Watch for weather updates around mid-January.
• Be prepared for short-covering rallies between January 15–20.

Stay informed, stay disciplined, and trade with strategy — not emotion.

⚠️ Disclaimer

Note: I am not registered with SEBI, CFTC, FINRA, or any other financial regulatory authority or advisory forum.

The information provided in this blog post is based on publicly available data and market observations. It is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be treated as financial or investment advice.

Trading in commodities and financial instruments involves substantial risk. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any trading or investment decision.

Trade responsibly — your capital is always at risk.