2026 NYMEX Natural Gas: The January Rebound and What It Means for Traders
Every January, traders in the U.S. natural gas market pay close attention to one thing — the “January Rebound.”
It’s a recurring pattern where NYMEX natural gas prices fall early in the month, only to surge back as cold weather and heating demand peak across the country.
As of January 9, 2026, prices are hovering near $3.13 per MMBtu, right around a key support level that has historically triggered strong buying activity.
📊 NYMEX’s Three-Year Winter Pattern
Historical data shows that natural gas prices tend to bottom out in the first two weeks of January and recover sharply by the third or fourth week.
| Year | Dip (Week 1–2) | Bottom | Recovery (Week 3–4) | Bounce % | Key Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $4.50 ➡️ $3.10 | Jan 10 | $3.75 | +20% | Arctic Blast forecast |
| 2024 | $2.85 ➡️ $2.15 | Jan 12 | $2.75 | +28% | Record storage draw |
| 2025 | $3.80 ➡️ $2.90 | Jan 9 | $3.60 | +24% | Late January freeze |
| 2026 | $4.70 ➡️ $3.13 | Current | Target $4.50? | +? | Trump, Russia & War |
🔍 Why $3.00 Is the “Line in the Sand”
For traders, $3.00 has long acted as a “holy grail” price zone for NYMEX natural gas. This level has repeatedly served as strong technical support.
When prices fall to around $3.10–$3.15, history shows that aggressive buying often begins. The recent dip likely shook out weaker hands, setting up stronger traders to take positions ahead of the seasonal upswing.
⚡ The Week 3 Short Squeeze
Between January 15 and 20, the market often experiences a short squeeze — when traders who bet against prices rush to cover positions. This usually happens once it’s clear that cold temperatures persist and gas storage levels drop.
With U.S. inventories down by roughly 119 Bcf, this kind of squeeze could spark another “rocket move” higher in the weeks ahead.
🌍 The Global Factor: LNG Exports and Geopolitics
This year adds more fuel to the fire. European gas prices remain elevated, and Trump-era sanctions have added uncertainty to global energy flows.
With Europe still paying more for gas, demand for U.S. LNG exports is likely to rise. This export pressure could help push NYMEX prices into the $4.00–$4.50 range, representing a possible 40% rally from current levels.
💱 NYMEX vs. MCX: Global Correlation
If NYMEX recovers from $3.13 to $4.50, global traders could see a parallel move in India’s MCX market:
| NYMEX Price | MCX Equivalent |
|---|---|
| $3.13 | ₹292 |
| $4.50 | ₹385–₹405 |
This means MCX’s ₹390 target aligns perfectly with NYMEX’s $4.50 resistance — a level that has triggered profit-taking in previous years.
🧭 The Takeaway
Over the past three winters, Week 3 of January has consistently been a turning point for natural gas prices. This year could be no different.
With strong heating demand, tighter storage data, and higher export potential, NYMEX may soon shift from its current lows toward a bullish recovery zone.
🔔 Call to Action: Stay Ahead of the Energy Curve
Natural gas often moves fast when the cold hits hardest. If you follow energy markets, now’s the time to:
- Watch weekly EIA inventory reports.
- Track LNG export data and European price spreads.
- Stay alert for technical breakouts above $3.50.
⚠️ Disclaimer
Note: I am not registered with SEBI, CFTC, FINRA, or any other financial regulatory authority. The information shared in this post is based on public data and personal market observations.
This article is intended only for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered investment or trading advice.
Trading in commodities and financial markets involves significant risk. Please perform your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Trade responsibly — your capital is always at risk.
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